When will the Ukraine war end? The key date for Putin

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For some weeks now, the world has been wondering when and how the war in Ukraine will end. And if the practical modalities of closing the conflict will probably fall among those we have analyzed here, as the weeks go by an increasingly realistic possibility arises, which now seems supported by the orders coming directly from Kremlin: there is an indiscretion shared some time ago by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which speaks of May 9 as a precise date beyond which Russia does not intend to continue the war.

Why May 9? Because that is the important date on which the defeat of Nazism and the end of World War II are celebrated in Russia (on May 9, 1945, Germany officially surrendered). There will be an important parade in Moscow‚Äôs Red Square, where the values ‚Äč‚Äčof patriotism and the importance of remaining faithful to the principles of the nation will be celebrated, and Vladimir Putin wants to arrive at that demonstration with something important in his hand: a message to the nation, which somehow confirms the success of their war operation in Ukraine.

The course of the conflict in Ukraine did not go exactly as Russia expected. Most of the Ukranian population has resisted, and the casualties among the military lines are huge. The war should have lasted less, yet the main Ukrainian cities held out better than expected. On the other hand, Russia’s goal was not the military conquest of Ukraine, but its neutralization, so that it would not pose a threat to Russia. In a propaganda key, therefore, the idea could be to ensure that the peace negotiations reach a result close to that date, so as to be able to present to the people a Russian success in the parade on May 9th.

Under this intention, Russia would be aiming to end the war between the end of April and the beginning of May, in time for May 9th. For many it is a plausible estimation: the original intentions were a blitzkrieg, so it makes sense that the conflict stops after a couple of months and then evaluates its achievements.